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2006 predictions
I had promised myself not to do any New Year's resolutions on this blog. So instead I'll do some baseless guesses about things that could happen.
Yes, you can flame me for each prediction (especially number 3), on the condition that you send a bottle of decent wine for every correct prediction (and two bottles if number 5 turns out to be true).
1. Windows Vista will launch on time. Despite a large marketing campaign, few shoppers will line up for a midnight sale, but the OS by 2008 will rule the world after all.
2. The open source patent debate will get a viable solution when OSDL forms a deterrent patent pool (instead of the patent library on training wheels that they created earlier this year).
3. The iPod's iconic status will fail to drive consumers to the Mac. Investors will call upon Apple to break up the company into separate consumer electronics and computer companies to rid the iPod of the Mac's ballast.
4. After Intel launches its Viiv entertainment platform, consumers will soon find out that they have a simple choice: pay over $600 for a Viiv PC or get a Tivo-like digital video recorder including networking features for free with their cable or satellite television subscription. Viiv will go down history as the "failed attempt to launch a Centrino entertainment copy-cat"
5. Samsung in a surprise move acquires AMD, once and for all putting the firm on the map as a serious Intel competitor.
6. The Sony Playstation 3 will make the Xbox 360 look like one of these Russian made Volga cars in a world full of Ferraris. The folks who ended up paying $3,000 for an Xbox 360 on Ebay will bang their heads against the wall, chanting: "Why, oh why?"
7. Google's valuation will drop significantly after investors realise that advertising revenue alone don't justify the company's valuation.
8. The use of RSS will jump from the current 2 per cent to over 10 per cent after Microsoft releases Internet Explorer 7.
9. Software users will launch a lawsuit against Microsoft after internal documents feed speculation that the company willingly released insecure code to meet a promised launch date.
10. VNU, the parent company of vnunet.com and the publisher of this blog, will have even more newspaper headlines than this year.
That concludes my final posting for this year. I'll be at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next week and will be posting to our CES Blog. Until then: happy new year.
Tags: 2006 predictions, microsoft, apple, open source, OSDL, xbox, playstation, google, AMD, Intel, samsung,
December 30, 2005 at 02:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBack
One list to define them all
Since technology is closely related to management and strategy (because it's a 'strategic tool'), and since this is a technology blog, you'll have to give this one some thought.
Scott Adams (yes, him again) made the number 12 spot of the Influential Management Thinker list.
The funny thing is, Adam's isn't a management guru. He doesn't even consider himself an anti-guru, as he told me several years ago during an interview, because he doesn't give any alternatives. He just points out the crazyness in this world.
So how does a notable non-management thinker respond to being on a influential management thinkers list?
"My first reaction was to feel sorry for the poor bastards who ranked 13 through 50. I imagine they would have felt pretty good about making the list until they were topped by the guy who wants to adopt a frozen embryo, name it Amy and keep it in the fridge."
This is the last Dilbert Blog link for this year. I promise. But this one really needed linking.
Tags: scott adams, dilbert
December 29, 2005 at 07:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Sleeping in the 24-hour city at CES won't be cheap
Hotel owners are preparing for a bumper January next week at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
Delegates who haven't yet arranged for lodging should expect to spend more than $350 for a hotel room, as a simple search on one of the major travel websites show (Eg: Travelocity or
The 3.5-star Hilton, conveniently located next to the Las Vegas Convention Centre where CES will be headquartered, charges a hefty $499 for a Thursday night stay. The 2-star Howard Johnson outbids them with $534. Most other hotels are simply sold out.
The secret is planning. Most hotels started selling out in November. If you were planning on dropping by and don't have a room, the law of supply and demand will do their work.
Las Vegas Boulevard, aka: The Strip
photo: Savan Thongvanh
Tags: CES, hotel, expedia, Travelocity, orbitz
December 29, 2005 at 01:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Gates vs. Mother Theresa? You pick
Dilbert author Scott Adams has some great suggestions for a fun way to spend some quality time with your family this holiday season. Since it should work even better with technology enthusiasts, I'll shamelessly copy his idea here.
Ask your friends or family the following question:
Who is holier – Mother Teresa or Bill Gates?
No doubt Mother Teresa is a saint (although not officially, according to the Catholic church).
But Bill Gates' billions have saved many more lives – enough to finally make him the Time person of the year in 2005.
The question boils down to: can you justify committing a small crime (stifle competition and equip the world's computers with highly insecure software) to do a great good (use your gains to save and improve lives)?
Mind you that some of history's great philanthropists (think John Insley Blair, Andrew Carnegie or John Davison Rockefeller) made their fortunes as devoted capitalists: using unscrupulous business tactics and making money off the backs of underpaid and overworked employees.
History tends to be gentle on bad businessmen doing good.
But really, who do you think is holier?
Tags: bill gates, mother theresa, scott adams
December 29, 2005 at 12:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Japan abandons the fingerprint?
A library near Tokyo is preparing to become the first library to use vein recognition to check out books. The technology will be supplied by Fujitsu.
What's up with the Japanese and their fondness of vein recognition as a biometric identification technology? Just last month, Hitachi started shipping a thin client laptop computer that, again, used vein recognition as a user authentication technology. It is also in Japan that you'll find ATMs using this technology.
Vein patterns have several advantages over fingerprints.
Scars can alter a finger print, but vein patterns typically remain the same over long periods of time. A finger print is also easier to forge (using a rubber overlay) than a vein pattern. But surely none of these are of great concern for a public library? The improvements over fingerprints are marinal when you compare it to passwords or library cards, while the costs must significant. You also don't have to press or touch a vein scanner, staying away from any yucky surfaces.
I for one am puzzled. You happen to walk into a biometrics expert, make sure you ask him or her. And drop us a line in the comment section below.
A palm vein scanner by Fujitsu
Tags: biometrics, vein recognition, hitachi, fujitsu
December 28, 2005 at 03:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Massachusetts CIO gives in to ODF pressures
Peter Quinn, Chief Information Officer for the state of Massachusetts who has spearheaded the state's planned switch to the Open Document Format, is planning to resign early next year, claims IDG News.
His upcoming departure is a direct result of the smear campaign against his person, he allegedly said on 24 December in an internal memo from which IDG News quoted:
"Over the last several months, we have been through some very difficult and tumultuous times. Many of these events have been very disruptive and harmful to my personal well being, my family and many of my closest friends. This is a burden I will no longer carry."
Quinn among things has been accused of corruption for improperly disclosing trips to open source conferences.
His departure doesn't mean the end to the state's support for ODF, but it should be considered a major setback for the format's supporters nonetheless.
And without pointing to any culprits, it's no secret that Microsoft has been waging a strong lobby against Massachusetts' planned ODF switch (and away from the proprietary Microsoft Open XML format), which could set an important precedent and is watched around the world.
Quinn in 2004 at PROS Congress
Tags: ODF, open xml, Microsoft, OASIS
December 28, 2005 at 02:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Firefox scores another IE victory
Dell has quietly started bundling the Firefox browser with its PCs in the UK, according to Firefox creator Blake Ross claimed.
Dell was unable to comment, but we were promised a call back if they could find someone who wasn't away for the Holidays.
Assuming that Ross is correct, the deal is a major victory for Firefox. Microsoft after all gained its leadership position in the browser market due to the bundling of Internet Explorer with Windows. Now that Firefox comes bundled with Dell PCs, the browsers can start competing based on features rather than bundling deals.
Tags: firefox, internet explorer
December 28, 2005 at 12:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack
More Sony BMG goof-ups
As the storm over the XCP anti-piracy technology has calmed down, Sony BMG has come under fire for its other DRM technology.
The MediaMax software that is supplied by SunnComm was already flagged for a security vulnerability. And now Texas attorney general Greg Abbott alleges that it illegally installed on computers: the application installs even if the user declines the end user license agreement. The agreement pops up when a user first inserts a music CD in his computer.
The complaint was added to another Texas suit against Sony over the negligence with the XCP technology. In that case Sony could face a fine of up to $100,000 per infected computer system.
Hopefully a company driven by greed will listen a financial spanking.
Tags: sony bmg, XCP, sunncomm, MediaMax
December 22, 2005 at 05:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Finding facts behind Microsoft's Xbox shortage
Some evil spirits are suspecting that there is a grander scheme behind the shortage of Microsoft's Xbox 360 systems, but nothing is further from the truth, claims AMR analyst Robert Bois.
In an 'alert' on the AMR website, he deflates the theory that Microsoft is deliberately undersupplying stores – which would serve the console manufacturer as a free marketing campaign as media report on desperate Xbox wanahaves.
Microsoft has made available about 1.1 million Xbox 360 systems in the first four weeks after the launch, AMR's Robert Bois points out.
"Considering the greater complexity of the new-generation consoles, the production rate seems well in line with previous launches, and looks downright spectacular compared to PS2."
Stocking up more of the units would have been unprecedented and a major business risk, he argues. Stockpiling millions of Xbox systems would have Microsoft investing $1.2bn in inventory.
Do you need more of an incentive to make sure that a launch goes right?
The occasional smashed Xbox 360 too contributed to the shortage
December 22, 2005 at 01:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Flash memory game gets nasty
The cut-throat competition in the market for flash memory has claimed its first victim. Renesas of Tokyo has said that it will stop making flash memory.
The departure comes at a time when Samsung and Toshiba are both aggressively investing in this market. Meanwhile AMD is preparing to spin off it's flash making division while Intel is preparing an entrance into the segment.
But although Renesas' departure could suggest a maturation in the market, the reality is that things are just getting started. The iPod has merely scratched the service of what portable flash-based device can do.
For us mortal consumers this is only good news. The more cutthroat the competition, the lower prices will get.
... things getting dirty
Tags: renesas, flash memory, samsung, toshiba
December 22, 2005 at 01:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack
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